暴雨泥石流预报程式

论述了暴雨泥石流预报的４个基本原理，即现象可预报性原理、成困分类组合原理、判别因素简化原理和预报决策依据原理。对泥石流时间预报模型作了分类，提出了通过泥石流活动周期与降水量周期叠加，建立泥石流活动性的长期趋势预测模型；通过泥石流活动年数频次与降水量丰欠等级频次组合，建立泥石流活动年份频次的态势预测模型；根据月或旬雨量确定泥石流发生的阈值关系，建立年内月或旬泥石流发生频次的中期预报模型；由短期天气预     

China's Present Situation of Coal Consumption and Future Coal Demand Forecast

This article analyzes China's coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material, and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries, which account for 85% of total coal consumption in 2005. Considering energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes, etc., this article makes a forecast of 2010s and 2020s domestic coal demand in these four industries. In addition, considering such relevant factors as our country's future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demands, using per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution's results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 2620-2850 million tons and in 2020 might be 3090-3490 million tons, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.     

集合数值预报系统在上海市空气质量预测预报中的应用研究

介绍了上海市世博环境空气质量集合数值预报系统的框架,分析了各模式在上海市空气质量预报及排放源污染贡献测算中的应用情况,提出开发多种预报手段、实施集合预报是提高城市空气质量预报准确率的发展方向。     

基于因子分析法优选河流水体中氮浓度预测方法的研究

定量的河流水体中氮浓度预测方法有很多种,如何优选出预测精度较高的方法一直是学术界多年来致力于研究的重点。本研究采用因子分析法对预测方法的精度评价指标进行分析,并建立了预测方法精度的评价模型,对回归分析法、神经网络法、灰色系统法和增长率统计法4种水体氮浓度预测方法进行综合评估,优选出精度较高的河流水体氮浓度预测模型——BP神经网络预测模型。结果表明,此评估模型对类似研究具有一定的参考价值,能为选择出合适的河流水体氮浓度预测方法提供依据。     

东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法

GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。     

应用指数平滑法建立城市工业三废排放量预测模型

指数平滑法是常用的一种时间序列预测方法，但用于环境预测的先例则较少。本文以南通市１９８１－１９９０年工业三废排放量时间序列为例，简要介绍了该法的原理以及平滑计算、建模、预测和精度分析的过程，并对其在环境预测中的应用效果进行了探讨，结果表明，该法与目前环境预测中常用的回归法相比，具有数据来源较易，不需要特殊分布，计算简单，精度较高等明显的优点，充分显示出该法在环境预测中应用的可行性。     

An air quality forecasting system in Beijing - Application to the study of dust storm events in China in May 2008

An air pollution forecast system, ARIA Regional, was implemented in 2007-2008 at the Beijing Municipality Environmental Monitoring Center, providing daily forecast of main pollutant concentrations. The chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was coupled with the dust emission model MB95 for restituting dust storm events in springtime so as to improve forecast results. Dust storm events were sporadic but could be extremely intense and then control air quality indexes close to the source areas but also far in the Beijing area. A dust episode having occurred at the end of May 2008 was analyzed in this article, and its impact of particulate matter on the Chinese air pollution index (API) was evaluated. Following our estimation, about 23 Tg of dust were emitted from source areas in Mongolia and in the Inner Mongolia of China, transporting towards southeast. This episode of dust storm influenced a large part of North China and East China, and also South Korea. The model result was then evaluated using satellite observations and in situ data. The simulated daily concentrations of total suspended particulate at 6:00 UTC had a similar spatial pattern with respect to OMI satellite aerosol index. Temporal evolution of dust plume was evaluated by comparing dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) calculated from the simulations with AOD derived from MODIS satellite products. Finally, the comparison of reported Chinese API in Beijing with API calculated from the simulation including dust emissions had showed the significant improvement of the model results taking into account mineral dust correctly.     

某危险废物填埋场地下水污染预测及控制模拟

以某危险废物填埋场为研究对象,在收集其水文地质资料基础上,运用Visual Modflow建立填埋场地下水水流和溶质运移耦合模型,对填埋场防渗层发生渗漏后,渗滤液中Cr6+在地下水中的运移过程以及地面硬化、防渗墙和排水沟3种污染控制措施对污染羽阻隔效果进行模拟预测.结果表明,Cr6+随地下水流方向运移形成污染羽,10 a后污染羽到达水塘边界,运移距离约为1 450 m,但随后10～20 a之间污染羽扩散范围没有明显扩大;地表硬化后,20 a内污染羽未扩散至水塘边界;防渗墙设置到上层含水层底部时,监测井Cr6+浓度高于未设置防渗墙时浓度,设置到下层含水层底部时,Cr6+浓度与设置于上层含水层时监测结果相反;排水沟日排水量达到2 642 m3时能有效控制污染羽扩散,20 a后污染羽尚未污染监测井;地表硬化与排水沟组合控制污染物扩散,效果最佳,同时排水沟日排水量可减少为1 878 m3.因此,当填埋场发生渗漏时,建议采用设置排水沟与周边地表硬化组合的地下水污染控制措施.     

基于裂区设计的大气能见度拟合及预测模型

通过收集分析广州能见度及影响因子数据的特征,使用R-project统计软件作为建模工具,采用多层裂区实验构建模型基本框架,选择影响显著的因子进行变量变形处理,对年、月、日、小时的数据特征进行层层分割设计,并在对应层次引入代表时间含义的虚拟变量以提高模型的表征水平,加入二次项、交叉项等提高模型的精度,得到拟合度高、适用性强的能见度拟合及预测模型。     

乳化液废水均相催化湿式氧化动力学

在2L高压间歇反应釜中,以高浓度难降解乳化废水为处理对象,研究了温度对铜盐均相湿式氧化的影响和动力学特征.结果表明:升高温度对加快后期反应速度更为有利,催化剂有利于中间产物氧化,在200℃催化活性最高,在进水COD48 400mg/L,反应2h去除率为86.6%;催化剂在不同温度作用下机制有所差别:200℃时3个途径反应速度均加快,中间产物加速氧化更明显;220～240℃时反应向生成中间产物方向偏移,活性降低;通用模型能较好地预测均相催化过程.